Seeing Jeremiah Owyang's post about 2008 made me think about the cycle of;
(1) The mass of people get sick of controlled media and advertising.
(2) They run away and find somewhere to talk.
(3) BigCo and MassMedia find out where they've gone and follow them.
This is how I see it's gone over the past 12 years:
1996 - Mass media TV, radio, magazines and news papers are stale, controlled, contrived and yelling so loudly we can't hear the good things they could say. So people found this Internet thing that seemed pretty open and unladen of strings and roamed freely.
2000 - BigMedia finally realised that they were yelling to an empty(ing) room and wondered where they had all gone. "The Interwebs, that's where they are!" So they built brochure sites and yelled at us with banner ads. The People responded by building tools that let them write what they want to write be what they want to be yeah. Build your own websites and then blogs were blank pages of freedom.
2004 - BigMedia finally learned how to spell blogs and about community contributions. Some good bloggers, but not the great melting pot that was. The People realised that what the media companies could never control was their friends and personal network. Social networks were (truly) born and useful applications were applied to them.
2006 - With the Fox purchase of MySpace, we see BigMedia again finding The People hiding, this time in gangs of friends. Madonna profiles and even Coke promotions in World of Warcraft. Focused or more controlled networks like Dogster or Facebook pick up the pace as social havens.
2007 - Lacking the time to write diatribes, The People turn to micromedia through social apps (Facebook Status) and Twitter to just 'keep in touch' with a loose community of people they know. It's almost ambient media. In fact that's exactly what it is. It's not fool proof, it's rarely personal, it's just a soothing wave of 'my friends are around, and they are doing cool stuff.'
Which brings us to 2008...
BigMedia are still a little confused by it all, but if history is anything to go by, you'll be followed by Ronald McDonald, Alec Baldwin and Hilary Clinton before January is over.
Micromedia and walled garden social networks are still fairly open spaces, free of big media noise. Facebooks attempts at 'sponsored fans' is banging at the gates, but the graph has held strong so far.
What impact would a truly OpenSocial have on that freedom is yet to be seen. It could strengthen it by making your connections stronger and still giving you the Power to Ignore. It could weaken it by making too many weak entry points that feel like Sospam (Social Spam)?
I'm not sure, but history shows that the motivation to make millions of dollars (like with spam) can overwhelm the determination of the crowds, at least until they run away again.
Questions:
1. What other safe havens exist now days?
2. Is mobile still a safe haven?
3. What impact does smart phones / iphones have on mobile havens?
4. Will BigMedia crack the Ambient Media wall?
5. Will Open Social strengthen or weaken the social graph against noisy intruders?
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